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'Inevitable'
Himalayan earthquake will threaten the country
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Nepal's
Nature Earthquakes |
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Earthquake
Contingency Plan 2008: |
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| Disaster Scenario and Planning Assumptions |
Several
studies have been undertaken to predict the results of an earthquake in
the Kathmandu Valley, resulting in varying scenarios for disaster impact
and aftermath. A scenario recently developed for planning purposes by OCHA,
which envisages an earthquake of 8.3 magnitudes centred on the Kathmandu
Valley, uses the following figures:
 Up
to 40,000 dead
Up to 95,000 injured
Up to 900,000 homeless
60% of buildings destroyed
Only two or three of the 14 hospitals in the valley with an in-patient
capacity of thirty or more still functional
95% of water pipes and 50% of pumping stations and treatment plants seriously
affected; water supply disrupted for several months
60% of telephones unusable for up to a month
40% of electricity lines and all sub-stations non-functional for a month
50% of bridges and many narrow roads unusable because of damage and debris
Kathmandu international airport isolated by collapse of access roads and
bridges; runway partially or totally unusable.
This
will be the immediate aftermath of the disaster, but as the first post-disaster
hours pass other pressing issues and concerns will arise:
Aftershocks may continue for several weeks, disrupting search and rescue
and recovery efforts and spreading panic amongst survivors, many of whom
will have been so traumatised by the disaster that they may have difficulty
cooperating with or participating in rescue and relief operations.
While much of the material used for building construction in the valley
is not highly inflammable, structural damage to poorly-insulated electrical
systems may provoke widespread small fires, which could be difficult to
control due to the disruption of the water supply.
Blocked roads and collapsed bridges will seriously hinder movement of persons,
relief goods, and equipment within the valley for a period of days after
the earthquake.
Few hospitals will survive the earthquake, and medical stocks may be damaged
or inaccessible. This, with many medical staff dead, injured, or homeless,
will complicate the treatment of the close to 100,000 people wounded in
the disaster.
Conventional communications systems (landline telephones, mobile phones,
etc.) will cease to function. HF and VHF radio and satcom systems will
work as long as equipment is undamaged and some source of electricity is
available to recharge batteries; in practice, with fuel supplies for generators
disrupted or non-existent, these back-up communications systems may also
cease to function after a few hours or days.
Availability of drinking water will be a serious problem, since much of
the potable water in the valley is stored in roof-top cisterns and containers,
most of which would be destroyed in the earthquake.
Sanitary conditions would deteriorate rapidly due to disruption of the
drainage and sewerage system in urban areas, which is in any event in poor
repair.
Depending on the time of year the disaster occurs, individuals trapped
in the rubble of collapsed buildings will not survive more than a maximum
of 96 hours. The extrication and disposal of human remains will pose a
serious problem given the lack of transport to move the dead and the difficulty
of locating sites and collecting fuel for cremation.
Shelter will present a major challenge, more so if the earthquake happens
during the rainy season. Individuals will be traumatised and fearful of
returning to surviving buildings for shelter, especially if these have
been damaged in the earthquake. While some survivors may improvise shelter
from the rubble of destroyed structures, the plight of the 900,000 homeless
will present a daunting problem to first responders.
With roads into the valley closed by landslides and the international airport
either totally disrupted or operating at limited capacity, it will be some
days - possibly as much as a week - after the earthquake before international
relief teams, equipment, and supplies begin to arrive in the valley in
any quantity.
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| Source:
Nepal Red Cross Society, November 2008 |
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